Food Chess

It’s one of my favorite games—chess that is, without the food bit.

Perhaps it’s because it mimics life in so many ways. The subtlety of feminism, where the queen is the most powerful piece on the board, and the king is just an impotent fugitive, skulking behind his minions.

The game is non-linear—a pawn can deliver the coup-de-grace, or turn into a queen (there’s a kind of gay twist there), and whoever dreamed up the knight moves really was a wizard.

And possibly the most important message—life is what happens to you when you’re busy making other plans—played well, chess is full of surprises.

My father taught me to play when I was eight or nine, and after a few months I could easily beat him, so I cast around for other partners—almost anyone who came to the house was challenged to a game.

Some years later, Bobby Fischer came along and beat Boris Spassky for the world title—that and the numerous books I had on chess made me aware of the Russian obsession with the game.

To build my bridge to food chess, I must now address food. Again, a Russian obsession, made clear in its relationship with Ukraine over a period of centuries—this means that the use of grain in the national interest is unsurprising.

Whether or not the Russian chess brain worked out the play beforehand, the fact is that the sequence:

Invasion of Ukraine -> Resistance -> International sanctions -> Arms supplies to Ukraine -> Boycott of products -> Application of the Magnitsky Act -> Stalling of Russian occupation -> Global shortage of wheat -> Fuel scarcity -> Inflation spike -> Use of food as a veppon… is a classic sequence of chess moves.

The Americans protest that Western sanctions were carefully calibrated to exclude fertilizer and agricultural goods, in order to allow continued export of grain and other foodstuffs and avoid disrupting the world order—they’re missing the point.

A chart from the US agricultural publication FarmdocDaily shows some worrying numbers on the West’s dependence on Russian ammonia and potassium—the data shown are for Brazil.

Russia, China, and a host of other countries do not play by the rules—the law of the jungle is all that matters—if Putin’s perception is that the world will suffer as a consequence of the protracted Ukrainian ‘special operation’, and if he attributes this protraction to US arms supplies to the enemy, then the logical move is to broaden the suffering as a means to apply pressure.

Food chess has devastating consequences—the Mid-East and Africa have been hard hit, and food insecurity will have knock-on effects on civil unrest, war, and immigration to Europe. The US is feeling similar pressures as impoverished Central and South American nationals trek north to the Yankee El Dorado.

The Russians know that supply-chain issues are hitting the West where it hurts—the vote—and they are hoping the populations of Western countries will react timorously by weakening their politicians; in time, the world will adjust to a new order, thinks Uncle Vlad, where sanctions are relaxed and military aid decommissioned.

In this new world, Putin will export the U-grain, prices will come down, and the former breadbasket of the USSR will effectively become the breadbasket of Russia. The new Russian province will be docile, Western voters will have forgotten the inconvenient truths of exile and murder of millions, and all will be well.

Contrary to the oil and renewables discussion, there is no alternative to grain. Food production is limited by thermodynamics—and now climate change further complicates matters.

So who has the wheat? North America. Europe also produces plenty of cereals. Elsewhere, it’s more patchy: India and China are significant producers, and Argentina also stands out.

But Africa and the rest of South America are in big trouble—with serious indirect consequences for Europe and North America.

So here’s how one scenario plays out: Russia captures the Ukrainian Black Sea ports, stopping the Ukraine from exporting grain and vegetable oils. The war is a Mexican standoff. The Ukrainian economy collapses and can survive only on permanent Western life support. Oil prices continue prohibitive and Europeans and Americans vote with their feet. Africa starves even more than usual and South America follows suit. The situation can only be resolved by NATO action in the Ukraine—a prelude to nuclear war. Russia’s NATO neighbors, particularly Turkey, Poland, Germany and now also Finland and Sweden, are less than sanguine about that option.

A long game indeed.

Many books have been written about the chess endgame. It’s noble to win when the board is half full, but if it comes to that, it’s necessary to win when the board is almost empty—and that’s an art form.

In life, as in chess, fifty moves is a stalemate.

The India Road, Atmos Fear, Clear Eyes, and Folk Tales For Future Dreamers. QR links for smartphones and tablets.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.


%d bloggers like this: