War In Our Time

A century ago we had a war followed by a pandemic. This time it’s very different—a pandemic followed by a war—that’s ’cause we’re civilized now.

And there’s a few other differences, too—where a fuckhead like Hitler relied on a conventional army through most of WWII, only dabbling with missiles and nuclear weapons at the very end, and too late to move the scoreboard—Putin has the world’s biggest collection of nukes.

The irony is that the Ukraine was itself flush with nuclear weapons prior to 1994—Wikipedia tells us that:

Ukraine held about one third of the Soviet nuclear arsenal, the third largest in the world at the time, as well as significant means of its design and production. 130 UR-100N intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) with six warheads each, 46 RT-23 Molodets ICBMs with ten warheads apiece, as well as 33 heavy bombers, totaling approximately 1,700 warheads remained on Ukrainian territory…

I bet they miss ’em now.

Kim Jong-un sits there and grins. “See, I told you so,” he says, as he munches his Matdongsan.

For a weaker country invaded by a powerful neighbor, it’s the only game in town. Then again, if the Ukes had the Nukes, World War Three would have already begun—nukes are only valuable as a deterrent because MAD is a zero sum game.

Distribution of the planet’s 17,000 nukes (courtesy Business Insider)

If we go by numbers alone, Russia inherited the USSR’s arsenal and according to Business Insider boasts almost 8500 warheads. However, Kristensen & Korda put the number at 4477. There are also questions about the quality of these weapons. Nevertheless, when compared to the rest of Europe, ninety percent of the atomic armor is in Russia.

The thing about nukes is that it only takes one to ruin your day. A few well-aimed missiles could wreak havoc from St. Petersburg to Vladivostok, by way of Moscow and Minsk. Of course, since Russia owns thousands, it could turn Europe into another Hiroshima—if we cast Putin as a Bond villain, laughing manically as Europe collapses, then it all makes sense.

The Russian president is clearly delusional, and he wields a lot of power—but he understands how much damage a couple of hits on Russia would cause. Putin would have preferred to start this war with the orang-u-tan in the White House, despite the fact that Biden is no wartime president—then again, the USA isn’t in the war.

Trump has come out indirectly in support of Putin, calling him a genius for taking direct action and suggesting a parallel with Mexico—one of his more bizarre twists, along with his subsequent one hundred and eighty about ‘holocaust‘ and his most recent rant about windmills.

I have no doubt Putin would have invaded Ukraine if the orange man was in power, and I shudder at the idea of Trump as the leader of the free world on the eve of a global conflagration. The former US president never supported NATO, considered Europe a bunch of cheats and scroungers, and would have done a covid on the old continent—flip-flopped his way to tragedy.

Lord knows the tragedy is here already—for China, this is a real-world test of American resolve. The temptation to do a uke in Taiwan—particularly as the war develops in Eastern Europe—must have the Chinese hawks swooping on the doves. I can hear them in the war rooms, in the closed meetings of the Zhongnanhai—there’s never been a better time, Mr.Chairman. Carpe diem.

“Close the skies,” the Ukrainian president begs, as the missiles pound his cities. “That would be the start of World War III,” chorus Biden and NATO, while the EU makes docile noises about adhesion.

After Ukraine falls, Russia will once more have a border with Poland, and an appetite for annexing the ‘little friends’, the Baltic states who showed how easy it is to thrive when you come out from under the paw of the bear.

At that stage, Putin will test NATO’s resolve—Germany has already put one hundred billion euros into its defense spending, up from forty-seven billion in 2021. The country has no nukes, but they could quickly get some—after all, they invented the damn things.

The stage is being set, with Poland once again being the larger prize—memories of the Nazi invasion of Sudetenland, followed by the start of World War II on September 1st, 1939.

Churchill told Europe, when Romania chose to appease Hitler, “Every nation feeds the crocodile, in the hope the crocodile will eat them last.”

As soon as the Ukraine’s done, Russia will have de facto borders with NATO. It will also have tens of millions of Ukrainians whose lives have been destroyed, families murdered, and hopes shattered.

All the trappings of the crime of the century.

The India Road, Atmos Fear, Clear Eyes, and Folk Tales For Future Dreamers. QR links for smartphones and tablets.

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