Hourglass Politics

Six in the morning, in the middle of the Scottish lowlands.

A timid dawn casts a faint light over layers of cloud, and seagulls cry overhead—weird, because I’m equidistant from Glasgow and Edinburgh, about as land-bound as you can get in this country of highlands and islands.

But there you go—the seagulls, like the humans they poop on, live in interesting times.

The hourglass is an apt metaphor for the countdown to Brexit—the sand trickles steadily downward with sixty-nine days to go. A political segment of the UK is scheming and plotting to give the hourglass a sharp tap, just as the last grains of sand pass the isthmus, while another is hell-bent on running down the clock.

Here in Scotland, any Brexit conversation quickly shifts to the independence debate—the Scots don’t feel represented by the English, which is certainly justified when you study their history.

A pro-Brexit punter on the radio yesterday explained that Britain had two options—no hope and bob hope—a reference to Bojo, the current UK prime minister Boris Johnson, who is an incarnation of characters from the British comic Beano.

Johnson’s former employer at the Telegraph, puts Beano Boris into perspective.

He’s a sly fox, disguised as a teddy bear.

Bojo got himself photographed yesterday with a shoe plunked on Macron’s coffee table—a pose sure to find favor with the more xenophobic Englishmen—while Macron pointed out, as Merkel had done the previous day, that Europe is more than happy to accept a deal as long as the UK provides a solution to the Irish border question.

What Macron and Merkel don’t want to do is to give Boris an excuse to blame France or Germany before the British people for a no deal. Both were at pains to throw the door wide open, in the knowledge that there is no solution currently acceptable to the Irish.

The smaller nations in the EU smile upon this whole shenanigan, which binds them closer to Europe—after all, this is the first time in history the Irish are successfully thumbing their noses at Westminster without any loss of blood.

The Dutch, Belgians, and Danes dwell on Germany, the Croatians on Italy, the Portuguese on Spain. All the little guys know what it means to get fucked by large neighbors.

The most likely outcome of all this teletubby frolic is that the UK parliament will block no deal, forcing a general election. It’s difficult to see how this can take place before Halloween, but it’s easy to see that the Bojo game will not force a no deal at this time, but aims to win a strong Tory majority at the ballot box that legitimizes his actions.

A Beano-style depiction of Bojo, alongside another paragon of British esoterica, often spoofed as discussing the economics of Carthage.

The opposition are, to use a technical term, screwed, because the alternative to a parliamentary block is effectively a no-deal exit.

General elections it is, which promises a spot of Christmas chaos.

A pro-Europe win, somehow binding Labour and Libdems, brings the threat of a Corbyn government—many Labour voters don’t want that, and no one believes in Corbyn’s pro-Europe credentials—Britain would live the irony of having a remainer, Theresa May, trying to get them out, and a leaver, Corbyn, trying to keep them in.

A pro-Europe win, for many, will also mean a betrayal of the will of the people, as expressed in the Brexit referendum—a second referendum has the same effect, should Brexit be defeated.

A pro-exit win will create the conditions for government policy to be supported in parliament. The question is whether that will force the Tories into an unholy alliance with Farage’s Brexit party, whose success in the European elections earlier this year was largely due to a combination of Brexit-dithering by parliament and to proportional representation.

But the hourglass metaphor extends well beyond Brexit. The consequence of an ever-widening income gap between rich and poor, together with the steady erosion of the middle class, is political extremism.

The rotund, Humpty-Dumpty-like politics of the center, a bell-shaped curve with a narrow band of nutters at either end, has been replaced by a Dolly Parton distribution—twin peaks, if you will—with two separate mounds of fruitcakes.

This is the politics of Italy, Spain, Greece, Holland, Britain, and… oh yes, the United States. The opposite tends to happen in nations where that middle class is growing—even if the political systems do not allow democracy to thrive, Asian countries where the economic extremes are becoming less polarized will tend to a more rotund political landscape.

It’s unsurprising that the shape of wealth distribution will determine that of political preference, having itself at one time been molded by political choices. This is clearly a cyclical system, where those radical preferences will once again shift the form of the wealth curve—the problem lies in the fact that we are all sorcerers’ apprentices—like Dias and Columbus, we sail uncharted waters.

A further complication is that apparently well-behaved, linear systems can easily turn chaotic. In nature, than spells floods and typhoons—in humans, it translates to war and bloodshed.

History teaches us not to underestimate the consequences of our actions.

The India Road, Atmos Fear, Clear Eyes, and Folk Tales For Future Dreamers. QR links for smartphones and tablets.

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