Mayday

I considered May Day as an alternative title, but I chose the more panic-stricken naval distress call.

The resignation of the British prime minister has been on the cards for a while—and now it’s official. If she were a monarch, her epithet would have been May the Moribund, the Westminster equivalent of the zombie.

Hard-core supporters of Brexit love to point out three things:

  • Contrary to doomsday predictions, the UK has been doing fine after the referendum vote in 2016
  • Border delays or paralysis due to a no-deal scenario are a conspiracy of Project Fear
  • The EU needs the UK far more than the UK needs the EU, so trade agreements are assured

I don’t agree with the doomsday stuff, but then only fools believe economic predictions. The whole concept lacks a paradigm, and empirical predictions for both economics and weather only work in the very short term and in the long term—though that last one is questionable.

Apart from  the lack of a paradigm, economic forecasting is inevitably flawed because it deals with humans. It can potentially work if it is unadvertised. The prediction is made, locked in a drawer, and revealed a year later, whereupon it is found to be reasonable. The Achilles’ heel is that it has to be disclosed to be acted upon, at which point humans react, thereby shifting the model conditions and outcome.

But my main objection is because people react, they don’t proact—in other words, they haven’t acted yet because there was nothing to act upon.

There still isn’t, but it’s a comin’ to an economy near you. The UK is now firmly between the devil and the deep blue sea—the ocean is the forthcoming rapprochement with the US, if a hard-line Tory such as Johnson or Raab becomes prime minister. Trump will encourage this, partly because he sees Brexit as a confirmation of his line of isolationism.

May succeeded Cameron following his resignation, and the appearance of a substitute Tory now will set a poor example of yet another unelected prime minister—Brits like to choose their leaders at the ballot box.

The trouble with calling elections is the Tories will lose—and that’s where the devil comes in.

Jeremy Corbin is a red rag to the business bulls, and most in the conservative party are scared to death he might show up.

If a Tory brexiteer takes the helm, WTO rules are the most likely outcome—the deadline is Halloween, and many EU politicians feel that the dog and pony show laid on by the UK since 2016 is sinking the union itself and must be stopped.

As usual, ordinary Brits are completely self-absorbed, and completely fail to understand that most citizens of Europe don’t give a shit about all the UK toing and froing.

Border issues will be a reality, at least for some time, because national connections are generally difficult unless simplified through agreement, which is precisely what EU membership provides.

Trade, on the other hand, is a different matter. Even with a no-deal exit, trade deals with Europe will in time be forged—it just won’t happen now.

What will happen now is the following, if my crystal ball is to be trusted. Despite (or perhaps because of) his buffoonery, Johnson will be the next prime minister.

The UK will move to leave the EU as quickly as possible. Since no alternative deals are on the table, or apparently acceptable, this will be a fracture, rather than an amicable parting. The UK will attempt to quickly strike bilateral trade relationships.

Quick is tough, as Trump learned the hard way with NAFTA and China. It’s easy and populist to break agreements—think Paris Climate Change, Trans-Pacific, and Iran.

Doing nothing after is possible, perhaps even popular, but unless you’re addicted to the poison cup, consider why Obama and others entered into treaties in the first place—the answer, of course, is for the common good. It’s possible that previous leaders misjudged those benefits, and the conditions thereof, but it’s unlikely—there is only one world power in the field of poor judgement, and that’s the orange man.

The UK joined the common market for the same reason, i.e. the common good, although a majority of British citizens now feel they will do better outside it—that was a nation’s democratic choice, and it must be respected.

Should there be a second referendum, the UK has been obsessing about the questions—the solution to that is trivial—a second referendum would have three: Leave with no deal; Leave with the deal; Remain. If the two leaves combined beat remain, then the higher of the two leaves stands. If they don’t, the vote is remain.

The ‘deal’ was the May deal, now it would be whatever else is forthcoming. If we take Brussels at face value, whatever other deal comes to the table won’t differ much from this one.

But there will be no second referendum—diehard Tory brexiteers will prefer to leave with no deal, and the devil take the hindmost. In this case the devil is Corbyn, and he will.

After the Halloween Brexit, the Labour party will clamor for a general election—this will happen within a year, at the latest, to avoid fracturing the whole country. At that stage, Johnson will lose, and the Tory leadership will pass on to someone else who will take the party through the inevitable desert crossing that awaits it.

This narrative is a sad one for Labour, because it will be in charge of a Britain hamstrung by Brexit, bilateral deals of any significance will be a distant twinkle, and it’s impossible to visualize Corbyn as an international deal-maker.

If my crystal mojo is working, then in one year Johnson will fall, and in one legislature Labour will fall. The Conservatives will return to power in a few years on the fallacious argument that the left made a pig’s ear of Brexit.

As with any self-inflicted wound, the periphery suffers first. England’s progress will be interesting to watch, but the reaction of Scotland and Northern Ireland will be fascinating.

The India Road, Atmos Fear, Clear Eyes, and Folk Tales For Future Dreamers. QR links for smartphones and tablets.

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