Trounced!

Last week I said that on November 10th I would do a piece on the mid-terms.

I lied.

In these pages you read about Brexit before it happened, and you read about the rise of the orange man before that happened.

I believe in my ability to predict, so instead of writing a post-election analysis predicated on 20/20 hindsight, I’ll give you a pre-election prognosis—Trump will get trounced.

My (correct) prediction last week that Bolsonaro would win the Brazilian presidency doesn’t count—Paul the Octopus could do that! It was also predictable that one of the Brazilian army captain’s first tributes would be to the religious base that elected him—in Brazil, the IURD is as powerful as the Jesuits were in the century following The India Road, and the new president’s middle name, rather worryingly, is ‘Messias.’

Bolsonaro, known as the ‘Tropical Trump’, is yet another addition to the coterie of mini-dictators that democracies around the world are spawning. Brazilian scientists are already deeply concerned about the same three things that upset their northern counterparts: science, environment, and democracy.

Which brings us back to the house and senate elections on the 6th of November.

In the 2016 election, Trump was sure he’d lose—but he won.

In 2018, he’s convinced he’ll win—but he’ll lose. Much like the method used by the soccer cephalopod seer, I base my prediction on a simple fact—the orange man is a very poor decision-maker, so it’s a sound strategy to bet against his predictions.

The US mid-terms are usually a protest vote against the president, and less than half of America votes. More importantly, state governors are elected, and senators and congressmen are chosen based on their service to the home communities—this includes what Americans call pork barrel politics.

But in these elections rides the future of Trump—not only in terms of possible impeachment, but more broadly with respect to policy decisions.

In November 2015, America didn’t really know Trump. To many, he was a buffoon, taken ‘literally but not seriously.’ Many people saw the Democrat win as a fait accompli and didn’t vote.

In 2018, America knows Trump. A people who have shown me nothing but kindness and encouragement, who  have shared with me their friendship, their time, and their home, have seen the image of a whole nation tarnished by one man.

America has seen filth on a hitherto unimaginable scale. It has witnessed the sniggering pseudo-apology of the privileged white male, the undertones (and overtones) of racism and xenophobia, the loud and brash claims—and although it has taken a while for the word to be used, it has heard lies. Lies. LIES!

Systematic and deliberate lies. Not factual inaccuracies, not misconceptions, not lack of information. Lies.

Americans know that in these elections they have a unique opportunity to show the world that a mistake was made, and that it has been redressed. This is very unfortunate for some republican senators and congressmen who have been doing a great job—because unless the republican voter is a diehard Trump voter, he or she will know that they’re not really voting for their candidate, they’re endorsing Trump.

Some good advice for next Tuesday, courtesy of the Boston Globe.

Democrats, on the other hand, have learned a huge lesson in complacency. Yes, Hillary Clinton was a terrible option, but this fellow makes Bush forty-three look smart.

Come senators and congressmen please heed the call
Don’t stand in the doorway don’t block up the hall
For he who gets hurt will be he who has stalled
There’s a battle outside and it’s ragin’
It will soon shake your windows and rattle your walls
For the times, they are-a-changin’

Democrats will win the house. It’s a longer shot, but I’m betting they also take the senate.

Let’s see what happens.

The India Road, Atmos Fear, Clear Eyes, and Folk Tales For Future Dreamers. QR links for smartphones and tablets.

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