Conspiracy 101

This weekend the United States was battered by two very different creatures.

One was a hurricane that hit the Caribbean Sea in October—that in itself is worth an article, particularly targeting those who dismiss climate change as a scientific foible or a… Chinese conspiracy.

Speaking of which, the second battering was the release of a set of compromising Trump tapes. These were in such poor taste, even by Dirty Donald’s exalted standards, that the Republican party reeled as if caught in Matthew’s rage.

Or did it? This fall we’ve watched Wikileaks come back to haunt the establishment, and as the November date looms, there’s a good chance more ‘news’ will emerge.

Bleeding a politician (or in this case a non-pol) can either be the death of a thousand cuts or a swift hemorrhage. Whether both Hillary and Donald can expect further digital kindness from Anonymous and their ilk is uncertain, but I’m sure both campaigns are bracing for more.

But the taped shots that aired over the weekend are something else entirely. This was not a hack but a mainstream news release—the content of the materials is predictably asinine, but what interests me is the delivery, not the payload.

Let’s suppose.

Trump seems to be sinking into a predictable quagmire, but he mustn’t be allowed to sink too deep. I bet that’s how the Democratic Party strategists see it. Clinton needs him beaten but not crushed, at least until after the vote.

If too much ballast comes out now, and Trump sinks like the Bismarck, the Republican ticket is in the hands of the RNC.  In that situation, a number of things could happen, including a rollback to Cruz or Rubio.

But I’m guessing the nomination will go to Mike Pence. Given the potential scenarios, it’s primarily in the Republican interest to destroy Trump now and pass the baton to Pence.

Cruz or Rubio would be a slap in the face of the white male electorate who applauded the Trump/Pence ticket, and the Republican candidate would be crucified in November.

So I wonder if, in tonight’s debate, Clinton won’t help the Donald to hold on, only to sink him further as November approaches—a thousand cuts.

Since the Republicans are practically guaranteed to lose, and the GOP establishment hates the man anyhow, wouldn’t it be a neat trick to have his own ‘side’ torpedo him, and hope that Pence has a shot?

Let’s look at Pence for a minute. Not my kind of guy, but far more presidential than Trump. Pretty extreme views, but substantial political experience, and most importantly, he’s seen as a rank outsider who appeals to the working class white male voter.

What would the GOP gain? A credible candidate, who can easily tack on a VP, perhaps Paul Ryan, or someone like Carly Fiorina, to wink at the ladies. Where will it leave Hillary? In a very bad spot.

Hillary Clinton carries too much baggage, and the only reason she might win against Trump is because… she’s running against Trump. Yes, I know it’s an oxymoron, but after eight years of Obama, any half-decent, half-sane opponent would beat someone as unloved as Clinton.

Mike Pence could.

Sure, you would need big balls to force the play at this stage in the game. Trump won’t quit, besotted as he is that the US voter adores him, and is prepared to forgive his childhood pecadillos—never mind that this weekend’s stories hark back to a decade ago, when the man was pushing sixty—hardly a pimply adolescent.

We’re a month away from the vote. Anywhere past the three-week mark will be too late for a palatian coup, and both parties know it.

Could this be the new president of the United States?

Could this be the new president of the United States?

In the alternative scenarios of a Trump victory or defeat, inevitably the Republicans have the most to lose. If Trump doesn’t win the presidency, it’s another four years of Democrats, but if he does, it’s a White House term that taints the party for years to come.

How much more weaponry can the GOP fire at the man before the Republican party feels it has enough of the vote on its side to dethrone the upstart? I’m guessing that many in the GOP hope tonight’s debate will break the camel’s back.

If I’m right, this week we’ll hear the famous words “Trump, you’re fired.”

And then the fun starts.

The India Road, Atmos Fear, and Clear Eyes. QR links for smartphones and tablets.

The India Road, Atmos Fear, and Clear Eyes. QR links for smartphones and tablets.

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