How do blogs die?

I’ve had a look around the blog world, and there seems to be a blog Catch22. This is a pre-web concept, if you don’t know it, have a look at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catch-22

The book was written in 1961, and was made into a movie a few years later. Anyhow, the catch is:

1. A few blogs are highly frequented and have plenty of input. Most don’t. This is an example of the 80/20 law, i.e. 20% of the products account for 80% of the sales. And vice-versa. In a store, that kicks out the other 80% of the products – on the net it doesn’t. Why? Because shelf space is free. This is an example of the Long Tail, mentioned below, and prior to Anderson’s book there is an excellent article on that by Clay Shirky. Well worth it:

http://www.shirky.com/writings/powerlaw_weblog.html

2. For the blogs that are unfrequented, here’s the catch: If I write and don’t know if anyone reads, then I am just being self-indulgent. It’s like the old joke about simulation models – the more you do it, the more it seems like the real thing! If you are reading, and I don’t know you are, I will just stop writing (unless I want to go blind from self-indulgence). If you like/hate/laugh at what you read, but I don’t know you visit, and so I stop, you will also stop stopping by.

So I’m going to keep writing, in a kind of public “Dear Diary”, and it seems to me that most people who blog are doing exactly that. But somewhere there is a long tail of a few people reading, who are a smattering of that 80%. Well, if there are 500 million people online (just checked, pretty good guess: these guys http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm say 361 million, but that was in 2000), and if 1% read blogs, that’s 5 million souls. So 80% is 4 million, someone out there just read this. Statistically, that is! We’ll get back to The India Road as we walk down this road, there’s no rush.

Advertisements

2 Responses to “How do blogs die?”

  1. Assentia Says:

    “…someone out there just read this.”

    *raises hand*

  2. Peter Wibaux Says:

    Fantastic, thanks!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: